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Graham Birkenhead, October 15 2024

To Shift or not to Shift

Have you questioned your Paradigms lately?

Discussion of mental models has featured in many of my blog posts - and that is because they are central to how we think, act, react, respond, interpret and understand what is going on in the world around us, and so ultimately how we solve problems, innovate, and move forward.    

Mental models are rather ingenious - they form as a result of us being exposed to new or different situations as we progress through life (aka learning); very many are formed during our formative years and are influenced by things such as culture, faith, or whatever is going on in the world around us at the time.  We use what we already know (probably simpler or smaller mental models) to make sense of what we see and then form new understanding.  This involves conscious thought (which is slow and consumes a lot of energy); however, once we have that new mental model, it is registered in the subconscious mind where it is instantly available whenever we need it to help recognise and respond to a future situation. Our subconscious mind can operate about 1million times faster that our conscious mind - and it consumes much less energy.  For many situations we encounter during our day, those mental models kick in as we recognise and respond.  Sounds great. 

There is a bit of an issue with this; this system was great for when humans lived in a time before life got so complex (mass civilisation and global everything).  Sure, the world took a bit of learning about, but the world changed very slowly over tens or even hundreds of thousands of years.  Societal change started to speed up just a handful of thousand years ago - and REALLY accelerated in a way that is having impact on most of world population only in the last couple of hundred years. And, while our brains are doing well to adapt, they are still optimised for a different era.  

Shifting Paradigms

The word 'paradigm' originally came from Greek, then passed into Latin and meant 'pattern' or 'model'.  It was Thomas Kuhn in 1962 who popularised the word and used it to refer to the framework or set of beliefs, values, and techniques shared by a community - and so a company might operate under a particular business paradigm, or a scientific field might have a dominant theoretical paradigm. 

As time has progressed, the word has made its way into popular use to describe the mental models, assumptions, or frameworks through which we as individuals interpret and respond to the world around us. Our individual paradigms reflect our own deeply held beliefs, cognitive biases, and ways of thinking.  

In both cases, a paradigm acts as a lens through which we interpret reality. At a group or company level, paradigms shape collective behaviours and practices, while at the individual level, they influence our personal perception of the world and our decision-making.  Of course one influences the other - and hopefully there is a fair amount of alignment. 

Thomas Kuhn also proposed the idea of a paradigm shift to recognise a fundamental change in the underlying assumptions resulting in major shifts in thinking.   This shifting often starts with an individual having a personal paradigm shift, and then (usually very slowly) they 'infect' their fellow humans with this new thinking.  Often there is HUGE resistance to this - which is understandable as the purpose of a mental model is to create 'automatic certainty' about how the world truly works; a paradigm shift is the mental equivalent of moving the earth under your feet and it doesn't feel good - or right.  And, especially when there is turmoil or greater uncertainty, we tend to hold onto our existing (tried and tested) mental models even tighter; we feel it as a threat and respond accordingly.   

Examples of big paradigm shifts include: Copernicus and the idea that the earth goes round the sun, Darwin and his ideas of evolution, The Industrial Revolution that transformed the way we lived, worked, and learned, the germ theory of disease, and the shift from absolute monarchy to democracy.  

And what's this got to do with Business?

While paradigms can provide mental shortcuts and help us navigate familiar territory, they can also blind us to new opportunities or emerging threats. Businesses must find the balance between holding fast to what works while being open to new possibilities. The key is to be open to the idea that things like market conditions, customer preferences, and technology etc are changing, some fast and some slow, and the company, and its people, may need to change with it - What got you here is not necessarily what will get you there. 

There are many great examples of how some companies have made a paradigm shift, and others not:  Netflix and Blockbuster with the shift to subscription-based models, Amazon vs Sears with the shift from physical retail to e-commerce, Apple vs Nokia and the shift from feature phones to smart phones, Canon and Nikon vs Kodak and the shift to digital photography.  The list can go on. 

The key takeaway from these paradigm shifts is the importance of keeping a close eye on the market (and the other PESTLE forces) and being adaptable. Embracing new paradigms and adjusting your business model accordingly can be the difference between thriving and becoming obsolete. Regularly reassessing your assumptions about your market, competitors, and customers will help you identify when it’s time for a paradigm shift - and when you need to hold fast to your core strengths.   

The company that learns faster than the competition is the one that will prevail.  How often do you question your assumptions about your mental models and business models?

  

Graham

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Graham Birkenhead

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